FLORIDA POLITICS: Byron Donalds takes 48% in new Tyson Group poll, nearly 40 points ahead of GOP field
Among high-propensity voters, Byron Donalds already sits at or above a majority.
Five weeks before the Republican Primary for Governor, one of Florida’s most-watched pollsters says the only question left is the size of U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds‘ margin.
A new statewide survey from the Tyson Group puts Donalds at 48% among Republican Primary voters, nearly 40 points ahead of his closest rival. The memo’s bottom line: Donalds is “for all practical purposes, the Republican nominee for Governor.”
No other candidate reaches double digits. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is a distant second at 9%, investor James Fishback takes 8%, and former House Speaker Paul Renner sits at 4%, tied with “Someone Else.” About 26% of voters are still unsure.
Pollster Ryan Tyson argues the topline actually undersells Donalds’ position, because his best numbers come from the voters most likely to show up.
Among 3-of-3 voters, Donalds takes 50%. Among voters 65 and older, 55%. He’s at 51% with vote-by-mail voters, 54% with self-identified MAGA voters and 60% among voters who watch Fox News “a lot.” As the electorate narrows to the people who reliably cast ballots, his share climbs.
“The question in this race is not who wins,” the memo reads. “It is how high Donalds’ ballot share climbs before his nomination.”
None of this happened overnight. President Donald Trump endorsed the three-term Congressman in February 2025, days before Donalds formally entered the race, and the campaign has been stacking advantages ever since.
Donalds closed 2025 with more than $45 million raised between his campaign account and the Friends of Byron Donalds political committee, more than any gubernatorial campaign in Florida history at that point in a cycle. He followed with a record $22 million first quarter, the biggest election-year opening quarter ever posted by a non-incumbent candidate for Governor.
His total haul has since passed $90 million.
The endorsements run nearly as deep. Beyond Trump, Donalds has backing from U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, 17 members of Florida’s congressional delegation, more than two dozen Sheriffs and roughly three-quarters of the Republican caucus in the Legislature.
Public polling has moved in one direction all year. Donalds sat at 38% in an American Promise survey in December. Emerson College had him at 46% in April.
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey in May put him at 54%, with undecideds breaking his way faster than toward any rival. A June poll from the Associated Industries of Florida, which has endorsed him, found a 46-point lead with majority support in media markets across the state.
He has led every credible public survey of the race.
His rivals have spent the closing stretch fighting each other instead. Collins is suing to knock Fishback off the ballot over Florida’s seven-year residency requirement. Renner keeps calling for a Fox News debate. The three trailing candidates shared a podcast debate stage last week without Donalds, who still came up dozens of times.
Tyson has polled Florida for two decades and calls this the largest lead his firm has measured in an open Republican gubernatorial Primary since 2006, when Charlie Crist beat Tom Gallagher by 31 points.
Leads that size in open Primaries, the memo argues, don’t collapse. They expand.
With paid media reservations over the next month tilted heavily toward Donalds, Tyson expects the number to keep climbing “unless a competitor mounts a real challenge.” So far, none has.
The Republican Primary is Aug. 18.
