THE HILL: Maryland Democrats barrel toward redistricting standoff

Maryland Democrats are barreling toward a standoff over a redistricting proposal that could hand the party all of the state’s eight congressional seats.

Democrats in the state House could pass a map recommended by Gov. Wes Moore’s (D) redistricting advisory commission as soon as this week. It’s the latest push from a Democratic governor to combat Republican-led redistricting across the country.

But the effort, cheered on by national Democrats, could be doomed in the state Senate, where chamber President Bill Ferguson (D) fears the plan will backfire on his party in the courts as control of Congress hangs in the balance in the midterms.

“We’re in a totally unique moment that’s being largely pushed by what’s happening at the national level,” said Ian Anson, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. “We don’t normally see politics in Maryland functioning like this.”

Moore spearheaded a redistricting commission late last year to explore redrawing the state’s congressional map mid-decade, a rare move that came after Republican-friendly redistricting in Texas and a Democrat-led response in California ramped up a nationwide arms race.

Chaired by Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D), the commission recommended a map concept to lawmakers that could oust Maryland’s lone Republican congressman, Rep. Andy Harris in the 1st Congressional District, and give Democrats an extra boost in a state that went to then-Vice President Harris by roughly 30 points in 2024.

“At a moment when other states are moving aggressively to redraw maps, and when fundamental voting rights protections face renewed threats, Maryland has a responsibility to lead with urgency,” Alsobrooks said last week.

Moore, too, has pitched the new map as a way of responding to redistricting backed by President Trump elsewhere.

“I’m not pushing because I want a seat,” the governor told MS Now on Thursday night. “I’m pushing because I believe in democracy. That Donald Trump started by asking Texas to say, ‘well, I need you to find me seats.’ Because Donald Trump knew that he had to try to manipulate the results in order to try to get an election.”

The National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) and other national groups have supported the efforts. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has backed state lawmakers taking the matter up for a vote.

After delegates advanced the legislation out of committee earlier this week, it’s now before the full state House for debate, with a vote expected in the coming days.

The latest legislation reshapes all of the state’s districts and includes a ballot question that would ask voters whether to leave the map in place through the 2028 and 2030 cycles, until the next regular redraw after the U.S. Census.

Republicans in the state House have tried to stall progress, but it’s nevertheless expected to pass through the chamber, where Democrats have a comfortable supermajority.

“The House in Maryland was always the easiest hurdle to clear. So I suspect it passes the House, and from there, it hits the much more rocky waters of the Maryland state Senate,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

In the state Senate, the most prominent Democrat in the chamber has emerged as the chief opposition against mid-decade redistricting.

Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson (D), who was a member of the advisory commission that ultimately recommended the new map, warned in a letter to colleagues last fall, published by Politico, that the risk of redistricting was “too high, making the unlikely possibility that we gain a seat not worth pursuing.”

Though Ferguson acknowledged the dangers of Trump-backed gerrymandering, he argued that, after Maryland Supreme Court struck down Maryland’s map in 2021, any redrawing of the current map could open up a legal challenge to the current map.

Of the seven members of the Maryland Supreme Court, five were appointed by former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, whom Alsobrooks defeated last fall for her Senate seat.

“We don’t often see this level of public discord between very high-ranking party leaders in Maryland. It’s surprising to see just how far it’s gone in terms of this level of disagreement,” Anson said of Moore and Ferguson.

Maryland Senate Minority Leader Steve Hershey (R) said in a statement to The Hill that he appreciates Ferguson taking a strong stance against Moore.

“The congressional redistricting bill is being fast-tracked through the House on a rocket docket, mirroring the same flawed and predetermined process used by the Governor’s commission,” Hershey said. “That kind of rush job may satisfy political leadership in the House of Delegates, but it is not going to fly in the Senate.”

Some operatives predict Ferguson and other opponents would let the measure die in the Senate without coming to a vote — prompting Moore to put renewed pressure on the chamber this week.

“When it goes on to the Maryland Senate, the ask is very simple: call the vote. Respect democracy. That’s the only ask we have,” Moore said on MS Now.

“I would hope that they believe in democracy in the same way that the House of Delegates are believing in democracy, because the House of Delegates are basically saying this: Debate the maps. Make adjustments if you see fit. But then call the vote.”

Moore is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, though he notably ruled out running for president in 2028 after chatter about joining the Democratic ticket in 2024.

“I think that for Democrats with their eye on the national stage, that’s what’s driving them: this feeling like I’ve got to do something to indicate my ability to help the opposition to the Trump administration take root,” said Anson, pointing to the likes of Moore and Alsobrooks.

“Whereas, for people that don’t have that kind of national pressure, it’s like they’re thinking about the process … they’re thinking, ‘This isn’t how we do it in Maryland. We’ve never done mid-cycle redistricting, and we don’t need to be like Texas,’” Anson added.

Maryland Democratic strategist Len Foxwell said that state Democratic senators who oppose the bill may be hesitant about a vote because they acknowledge the energy behind the national redistricting push.

“I don’t think that, given the temperature of the political climate, it would serve the members of the Senate particularly well if they had to record their opposition to something that is viewed as this important to the Democratic base,” Foxwell said.

“Absent a real marked sea change in tone and philosophy, I don’t see this going anywhere in the Senate.”

If it does die, that would rule out mid-decade redistricting for the 2026 cycle. But when it comes to the possibility of mid-decade Maryland changes before the 2028 presidential cycle, it’s “never say never,” Foxwell said.

Harris, the congressman who would be drawn out, told multiple outlets this week that he’s prepared to lodge legal challenges against the legislation if it does get through the General Assembly.

Texas, California, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio have passed new maps amid the national redistricting war, and litigation led to a new map in Utah.

State lawmakers in nearby Virginia this month passed a proposed constitutional amendment to redraw a new House map, though the effort faces legal challenges. And in Florida, state lawmakers expect a special session on redistricting in the spring.

Republicans have a 218-213 hold on the U.S. House, and Democrats would need to net just three seats in November to flip the lower chamber, raising the stakes for the redistricting back-and-forth.

“Wherever they can try to maximize their advantage, they want to, and Maryland happens to be one of those states,” Eberly said of Democrats.

“It’s only one seat, but if you look at how close the House is right now, [Speaker] Mike Johnson can afford one or two defections on any given day. So one seat suddenly becomes critical.”